22518 Garrison Dr · California, MD 20619

$349,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1968 0.90 ac lot Est $379k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3 bedroom, 2 full bath rambler located at the end of a cul-de-sac! In close proximity to shopping, schools, restaurants, and the Pax River Naval Base! Open floor plan with fresh paint and updated flooring throughout. Kitchen has stainless steel appliances, space for a kitchen island and open to dining area & family room! Additional bonus room off kitchen can be used for an additional bedroom, office, family room, rec room, or exercise room. Lots of possibilities! Nice level yard, plenty of room for parking, and a storage shed! Call today to schedule a private showing!

Key facts

• 0.9 acre lot
• Built 1968
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer; Well water; Electric service
• Home design: Detached property; Effective renovation in 2019
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Crawl space foundation; No basement
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Located on a cul-de-sac; Shed on the property; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Microwave; Oven/Range - Electric; Stove; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans for additional cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Combination kitchen and dining area; Family room open to the kitchen; Entry-level bedroom; Storm door(s); Drywall walls and ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in California — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#127 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hollywood Elementary (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #251 of 860 statewide, top 30%, 474 students, 30% FRL); Esperanza Middle (math 18% / reading 41%, grade F, #67 of 225 statewide, top 32%, 875 students, 41% FRL); Great Mills High (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,779 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 32% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $272k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,665 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.10%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $378,720
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22516 Joan Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-3%)	12mo	$365,000	$262	80
22586 Joan Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	13mo	$385,000	$263	78
22580 Garrison Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-15%)	10mo	$345,000	$282	59
45515 Kilbeggan Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-8%)	9mo	$290,000	$218	59
45642 Taras Ct	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,572 (+9%)	2mo	$415,000	$264	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.3% appreciation · 6.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $28,480
• Equity at exit: $143,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $150,357
• Equity at exit: $211,710

Cash invested: $97,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20619

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,709/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,794

Max offer price $319,712

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $27	-5% $-72	+0% $-171	+5% $-270	+10% $-370
Rent	-10% $-375	-5% $-273	+0% $-171	+5% $-70	+10% $32
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-82	base $-171	+0.5pp $-262	+1.0pp $-354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,498
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23155 Park Place Way California, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,495	$2.40	7d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $349,990 Coming Soon 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,990 Coming Soon 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $349,990 Coming Soon 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,990 Coming Soon 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,990 Coming Soon 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,990 Coming Soon 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,990 Coming Soon 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,990 Coming Soon 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $349,990 Coming Soon 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $349,990 Coming Soon 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,990 Coming Soon 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,990 Coming Soon 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-05
    listed $349,990 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,709 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,262 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: +$553/yr (+$46/mo · 20.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,709
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,474
• − Management: −$2,474
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$8,273
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,985
• After-tax cash flow: $-71/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — California

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #5421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 14,212
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 14,212
• Household income: $119,432
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 357.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Current HPI: 239.4326
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.73%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+32.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Coming Soon $349,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $272,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-10 Sold (MLS) $272,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-01 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-16 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-08 Listed $265,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,709 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.