800 E Lisa Dr

Chaparral, NM 88081

$130,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 440 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $933/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $-30/mo
• Annual: $-357/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-357/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (28.3% below list).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#342 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Gadsden Independent Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #21 of 29 in NM (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.