800 E Lisa Dr · Chaparral, NM 88081

$130,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1995 1.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home offers a comfortable and functional layout with a bright living area that flows nicely into the eat in kitchen area with ample cabinet and pantry space. The primary suite is nice and cozy and has its own on-suite. Outside you will also find a building that can be used as a workshop or storage unit. Situated on over one acre of land the possibilities are endless. Schedule your showing today!!

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• Ample cabinet space
• 1.01 acre lot

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• WORKSHOP OR STORAGE UNIT
• OVER ONE ACRE OF LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-357/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $93k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#342 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Gadsden Independent Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #21 of 29 in NM (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,257 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $13,241
• Equity at exit: $57,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $50,289
• Equity at exit: $88,951

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88081

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $933 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $367/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $970

Max offer price $124,751

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $130,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2025-12-03
   listed $130,000 Active 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   This home offers a comfortable and functional layout with a bright living area that flows nicely into the eat in kitchen area with ample cabinet and pantry space. The primary suite is nice and cozy and has its own on-suite. Outside you will also find a building that can be used as a workshop or storage unit. Situated on over one acre of land the possibilities are endless. Schedule your showing today!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $367 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$673/yr (+$56/mo · 183.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$367
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$895
• − Management: −$895
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$2,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$643
• After-tax cash flow: $287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gadsden Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501080
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,461
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8298
• State rank: #21 of 29 in NM

Livability — Chaparral

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #26579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chaparral, NM
• Population (ZIP): 18,334

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 37% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 73%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Current HPI: 228.645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Listed $130,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $367 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.