2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
948 sqft ·
Built 1985
· Condo
· Active
· 5 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,851/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,311
Tax + insurance
−$694
HOA
−$980
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$809
Net cashflow
$57/mo
Annual
$688/yr
Cap rate
8.62%
Cash-on-cash
8.30%
DSCR
1.37
1% rule
1.54%
Cash to close
$69,996
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($688/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $250k).
Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#404 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Tommie Barfield Elementary School (math 84% / reading 75%, grade A, #116 of 2,144 statewide, top 6%, 464 students, 30% FRL); Manatee Middle School (math 61% / reading 43%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 749 students, 64% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 25% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $155k; list at $250k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $3,851/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($102k/yr) (locally 314% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TV7Z5Q26N8S9FJ
· Data 16 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29