19777 N 76th St #2141

Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$419,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,222 sqft · Built 2000 · Condo · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,599/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax + insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$495
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-927/mo
• Annual: $-11,121/yr
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.48%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $117,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $419k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-927 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (39.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (38.0% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($406k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $255k (39.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 720 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $334k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.