391 N Gay Ave

Callaway, FL 32404

$224,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · Built 2024 · Townhouse · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,840/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-59/mo
• Annual: $-708/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $62,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-708/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (18.2% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#690 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Parker Elementary School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,951 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 496 students, 74% FRL); Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.