391 N Gay Ave · Callaway, FL 32404

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · Townhouse public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition $150/sqft · at area comps Est $239k · 6% under ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Model home NOW for sales! NEW construction opportunity awaits in this classy 3 bedroom, 2 ½ bath townhome with its own one car garage. Features include vidyl siding and brick, 9' ceilings, granite countertops, tray ceilings, oak tread stairs, blinds, and fans in the living and primary bedroom. With clean lines and attention to detail, the Towne is sure to impress. You'll enjoy all Panama City has to offer with its white, sandy beaches, tourist attractions, shopping, and savory restaurants. Your new townhome provides the perfect work/life balance and is within miles of Tyndall Air Force Base. Whether you are a savvy investor or first-time home buyer, we know you'll enjoy the satisfa

Key facts

• One car garage
• White sandy beaches
• Community dog park

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COMMUNITY DOG PARK
• ONE CAR GARAGE
• WHITE SANDY BEACHES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service available; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story single-family residence; New construction; Brick, vinyl siding, and wood frame construction
• Construction: Brick exterior; Vinyl siding; Wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Open patio/porch; Porch; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-708/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#690 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Parker Elementary School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,951 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 496 students, 74% FRL); Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $183,955 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,745
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -5.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5874 Tyndall Pl	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,554 (+3%)	2mo	$239,850	$154	89
5872 Tyndall Pl	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,554 (+3%)	3mo	$249,850	$161	88
5888 Tyndall Pl	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,554 (+3%)	4mo	$249,850	$161	87
5892 Tyndall Pl	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,554 (+3%)	5mo	$250,850	$161	86
5870 Tyndall Pl	0.05mi	3/3.0	1,446 (-4%)	2mo	$235,350	$163	86
5896 Tyndall Pl	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,554 (+3%)	6mo	$244,000	$157	86
5898 Tyndall Pl	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,554 (+3%)	6mo	$249,850	$161	85
5764 Callaway Cir #15	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,519 (+1%)	1mo	$190,000	$125	76
5862 Tyndall Pl	0.02mi	3/3.0	1,320 (-12%)	1mo	$237,000	$180	74
5849 Bay Pl	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,519 (+1%)	2mo	$190,000	$125	72
5828 Callaway Cir	0.46mi	3/3.0	1,519 (+1%)	4mo	$186,000	$122	69
5852 Tyndall Pl	0.02mi	3/3.0	1,306 (-13%)	8mo	$224,850	$172	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-43,614
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-56,306
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 983
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,870/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,914

Max offer price $214,479

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $68	-5% $5	+0% $-59	+5% $-123	+10% $-186
Rent	-10% $-204	-5% $-132	+0% $-59	+5% $14	+10% $86
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $-2	base $-59	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5817 Jasmine Ct Panama City, FL	4.0	2.5	1633	$2,000	$1.22	15d	1	0.05mi
420 Raven Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,750	$1.40	22d	1	0.16mi
229 Callaway Chase Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,650	$1.38	15d	1	0.22mi
6121 Harvey St Unit 8 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,050	$0.88	22d	1	0.33mi
6101 Harvey St #3 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1108	$1,050	$0.95	22d	1	0.34mi
526 Camellia Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,950	$1.42	22d	1	0.40mi
5101 Willow St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1099	$1,500	$1.36	15d	1	0.70mi
129 Seneca Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,495	$1.03	15d	1	0.76mi
208 North Highway 22 A Unit 33 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,350	$1.25	22d	1	0.77mi
163 Lauren Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,300	$1.33	22d	1	0.78mi
114 S Kimbrel Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	22d	1	0.80mi
175 N Berthe Ave Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1498	$2,195	$1.47	15d	1	0.86mi
116 Christie Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,550	$1.42	22d	1	0.95mi
6328 Olokee St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,850	$1.64	15d	1	0.97mi
906 Kevin Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,795	$1.42	22d	1	1.12mi
5813 Hickory St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	22d	1	1.13mi
509 Phillips Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,700	$1.20	15d	1	1.25mi
5717 Rebecca Ct Unit B Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	1612	$1,350	$0.84	22d	1	1.26mi
4141 E 15th St Panama City, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1082	$1,825	$1.69	15d	9	1.36mi
4837 S Lakewood Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1116	$1,500	$1.34	22d	1	1.39mi
263 Nelle Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,690	$1.31	22d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   price $224,900 897-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   price $229,850 897-char remark
3. 2026-05-02
   listed $244,850 Active 897-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,870 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,870 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$2,870
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$4,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,102
• After-tax cash flow: $394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great balance of style and functionality, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Callaway

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #14384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Callaway, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $224,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $229,850 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $244,850 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+757.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,870 · +1005.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.