1512 Dutchtown Rd

Newark Valley, NY 13760

$185,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,209/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$343
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-358/mo
• Annual: $-4,298/yr
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.30%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-358 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (34.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (34.7% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $121k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#462 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Newark Valley Central School District (rural): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #466 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nathan T Hall School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 322 students, 50% FRL); Newark Valley Middle School (math 23% / reading 41%, grade F, #511 of 729 statewide, top 71%, 290 students, 59% FRL); Newark Valley Senior High School (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 414 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 139 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tioga County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.