2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
648 sqft ·
Built —
· Condo
· Active
· 78 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,496/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,290
Tax + insurance
−$410
HOA
−$440
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$944
Net cashflow
$1,411/mo
Annual
$16,937/yr
Cap rate
13.18%
Cash-on-cash
24.59%
DSCR
2.09
1% rule
1.83%
Cash to close
$68,880
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $246k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $246k).
It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $231k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($158k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: Exterior paint
— The exterior paint is faded and chipped, indicating a need for repainting.
Major: Flooring
— The flooring appears worn and may need replacement or refinishing.
Major: Interior walls and ceilings
— The walls and ceilings show signs of wear and discoloration, indicating a need for repainting or repairs.
Major: Exterior siding
— The siding is in poor condition, with visible wear and tear, and the paint is faded.
Major: Windows
— The windows appear to be in poor condition, with some showing signs of wear and tear.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TW5MBE56363FVE
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29