5220 Wakefield Rd

Buena Vista, MI 48601

$140,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,373/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $226/mo
• Annual: $2,712/yr
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.92%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (1.9% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $137k (1.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Frankenmuth School District (town): math 48% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #73 of 540 in MI (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lorenz C List School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 481 students, 24% FRL); Ef Rittmueller Middle School (math 43% / reading 61%, grade C+, #95 of 493 statewide, top 20%, 363 students, 26% FRL); Frankenmuth High School (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B-, #58 of 713 statewide, top 9%, 524 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 12.1% in Buena Vista — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.