5220 Wakefield Rd · Buena Vista, MI 48601

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1963 0.39 ac lot Est $207k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sneak peek — more photos coming after the weekend. Join us at Saturday’s open house from! Welcome to Wakefield Rd in Saginaw, located in the Frankenmuth School District. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch backs up to open fields for added privacy and peaceful views. Inside features a spacious living area with a large front window, built-ins, and a kitchen with abundant cabinet space and a newer oven. The home offers a mix of hardwood and vinyl flooring, along with well-sized bedrooms and built-in storage. The partially finished basement includes a wood stove connected to the existing fireplace for additional living space. Enjoy a large backyard with a deck, fenced area, and an extra deep 1.5-car garage. City water, newer water heater, and option to connect to city sewer. Home is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Newer oven
• Spacious living area
• Built-in storage

Tags

• FRANKENMUTH SCHOOL DISTRICT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• NEWER OVEN
• HARDWOOD AND VINYL FLOORING
• BUILT-IN STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (1.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 11.9% in Buena Vista — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Frankenmuth School District (town): math 48% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #73 of 540 in MI (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lorenz C List School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 481 students, 24% FRL); Ef Rittmueller Middle School (math 43% / reading 61%, grade C+, #95 of 493 statewide, top 20%, 363 students, 26% FRL); Frankenmuth High School (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B-, #58 of 713 statewide, top 9%, 524 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $137,295 (1.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.92%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,296
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
875 S Airport Rd	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,248 (-1%)	8mo	$205,000	$164	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,341
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $11,081
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,373 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $794/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,087

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $266	+0% $226	+5% $186	+10% $147
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $172	+0% $226	+5% $280	+10% $334
Rate	-1.0pp $296	-0.5pp $262	base $226	+0.5pp $190	+1.0pp $153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (814 chars)

   Sneak peek — more photos coming after the weekend. Join us at Saturday’s open house from! Welcome to Wakefield Rd in Saginaw, located in the Frankenmuth School District. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch backs up to open fields for added privacy and peaceful views. Inside features a spacious living area with a large front window, built-ins, and a kitchen with abundant cabinet space and a newer oven. The home offers a mix of hardwood and vinyl flooring, along with well-sized bedrooms and built-in storage. The partially finished basement includes a wood stove connected to the existing fireplace for additional living space. Enjoy a large backyard with a deck, fenced area, and an extra deep 1.5-car garage. City water, newer water heater, and option to connect to city sewer. Home is being sold as-is.

2. 2026-04-26
   status Pending 814-char remark

   Show marketing remark (814 chars)

   Sneak peek — more photos coming after the weekend. Join us at Saturday’s open house from! Welcome to Wakefield Rd in Saginaw, located in the Frankenmuth School District. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch backs up to open fields for added privacy and peaceful views. Inside features a spacious living area with a large front window, built-ins, and a kitchen with abundant cabinet space and a newer oven. The home offers a mix of hardwood and vinyl flooring, along with well-sized bedrooms and built-in storage. The partially finished basement includes a wood stove connected to the existing fireplace for additional living space. Enjoy a large backyard with a deck, fenced area, and an extra deep 1.5-car garage. City water, newer water heater, and option to connect to city sewer. Home is being sold as-is.

3. 2026-04-24
   listed $140,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (814 chars)

   Sneak peek — more photos coming after the weekend. Join us at Saturday’s open house from! Welcome to Wakefield Rd in Saginaw, located in the Frankenmuth School District. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch backs up to open fields for added privacy and peaceful views. Inside features a spacious living area with a large front window, built-ins, and a kitchen with abundant cabinet space and a newer oven. The home offers a mix of hardwood and vinyl flooring, along with well-sized bedrooms and built-in storage. The partially finished basement includes a wood stove connected to the existing fireplace for additional living space. Enjoy a large backyard with a deck, fenced area, and an extra deep 1.5-car garage. City water, newer water heater, and option to connect to city sewer. Home is being sold as-is.

4. 2026-04-24
   listed $140,000 Active 814-char remark

   Show marketing remark (814 chars)

   Sneak peek — more photos coming after the weekend. Join us at Saturday’s open house from! Welcome to Wakefield Rd in Saginaw, located in the Frankenmuth School District. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch backs up to open fields for added privacy and peaceful views. Inside features a spacious living area with a large front window, built-ins, and a kitchen with abundant cabinet space and a newer oven. The home offers a mix of hardwood and vinyl flooring, along with well-sized bedrooms and built-in storage. The partially finished basement includes a wood stove connected to the existing fireplace for additional living space. Enjoy a large backyard with a deck, fenced area, and an extra deep 1.5-car garage. City water, newer water heater, and option to connect to city sewer. Home is being sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $794 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$681/yr (+$57/mo · 85.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$794
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,318
• − Management: −$1,318
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$103
• After-tax cash flow: $2,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frankenmuth School District
• NCES district ID: 2614760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $62,373
• Composite: 47.24/100
• National rank: #2311
• State rank: #73 of 540 in MI

Livability — Buena Vista

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #20603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 32,069
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-26 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $140,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $140,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $794 · -73.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.