4905 Bethesda Duplex Rd

Spring Hill, TN 37046

$689,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,613
• Tax + insurance: −$445
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-109/mo
• Annual: $-1,303/yr
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $192,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $689k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $670k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (27.4% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $500k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#23 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bethesda Elementary (math 59% / reading 48%, grade C, #98 of 952 statewide, top 11%, 574 students, 0% FRL); Summit High School (math 9% / reading 62%, grade F, #38 of 332 statewide, top 11%, 1,708 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Williamson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 39% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $462k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.0% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.