4905 Bethesda Duplex Rd · Spring Hill, TN 37046

$689,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1984 3.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hurry! Come see this one level all brick 2 Bedroom, 2 Full Baths, with unfinished full basement, above ground pool, large covered patio with hot tub, located on three level acres sowed in pasture for horse or other livestock. No HOA. Home needs updating or build new home on property. Home and property being sold in "as is" condition. Buyers are welcome to have an inspection, but Seller will make no repairs.

Key facts

• Rural charm
• 3 unrestricted acres
• No hoa

Tags

• 3 UNRESTRICTED ACRES
• NO HOA
• UNIQUE DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY LIVING
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY
• RURAL CHARM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area professionally measured; Living area approximately 1302 square feet; Lot size approximately 3 acres
• Financial info: $1,900 annual tax amount
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (garage faces side); 2 covered parking spaces, total 2 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank; Water available on property
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Approximate year built
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Screened patio; Patio; Partial fencing; Level lot; Barn(s) on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level; Bedroom 1: 10 x 14; Bedroom 2: 11 x 14
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Pantry; Unfinished basement; Gas and wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $689k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $670k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $500k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.0% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#23 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bethesda Elementary (math 59% / reading 48%, grade C, #98 of 952 statewide, top 11%, 574 students, 0% FRL); Summit High School (math 9% / reading 62%, grade F, #38 of 332 statewide, top 11%, 1,708 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Williamson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 39% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $462k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $500,000 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-118,921
• Equity at exit: $102,732

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-113,910
• Equity at exit: $59,572

Cash invested: $192,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37046

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,613
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,900/yr
• Insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,137

Max offer price $669,814

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $172,250
• Closing costs: $20,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4839 Bethesda Rd Thompsons Station, TN	3.0	2.0	1152	$5,000	$4.34	44d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $689,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $689,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $689,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $689,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 687-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $689,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,900 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,892 · $408/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,992/yr (+$249/mo · 157.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,595
• − Property taxes: −$1,900
• − Insurance: −$3,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$20,044
• Taxable loss: −$13,583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,260
• After-tax cash flow: $1,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamson County
• NCES district ID: 4704530
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $103,392
• Composite: 54.94/100
• National rank: #1307
• State rank: #1 of 139 in TN

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #5036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 53,900
• Population (ZIP): 6,632

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 275,925 people
• By 2030: 308,630 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 374,403 · +35.7%
• By 2050: 438,644 · +59.0%
• By 2075: 592,763 · +114.8%
• By 2100: 691,828 · +150.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 6% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.0% · R 65.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+26.1 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+46.8 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.12%
• Current HPI: 508.2617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+39.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Coming Soon $689,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $462,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-14 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-09 Sold (MLS) $462,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-10 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-10 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-06 Listed $495,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-06 Listed $495,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,900 · +36.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.