375 Pine Needle Dr

Pembroke, GA 31308

$270,000C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,340 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Pending · 138 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $352/mo
• Annual: $4,226/yr
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.59%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (1.9% below list).
• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#144 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Bryan County (rural): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #14 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bryan County Elementary School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade F, #370 of 1,228 statewide, top 30%, 962 students, 65% FRL); Bryan County Middle School (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #206 of 470 statewide, top 45%, 400 students, 68% FRL); Bryan County High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #184 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 608 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 29% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bryan County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 510 units permitted in Bryan County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bryan County population projected at +64% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 10700% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.2% in Pembroke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.