375 Pine Needle Dr · Pembroke, GA 31308

$270,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 2007 1.28 ac lot $115/sqft · 7% below area Est $291k · 7% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

very close to Hyundai Motor Group Meta plant America (HMGMA) 6.3mile about 10min motivated seller

Key facts

• 1.28 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.2% in Pembroke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#144 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Bryan County (rural): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #14 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bryan County Elementary School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade F, #370 of 1,228 statewide, top 30%, 962 students, 65% FRL); Bryan County Middle School (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #206 of 470 statewide, top 45%, 400 students, 68% FRL); Bryan County High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #184 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 608 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 29% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bryan County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 510 units permitted in Bryan County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bryan County population projected at +64% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 10700% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.59%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,365
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -7.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-21,359
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $10,134
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31308

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,555/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,204

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $505	-5% $429	+0% $352	+5% $276	+10% $199
Rent	-10% $143	-5% $247	+0% $352	+5% $457	+10% $562
Rate	-1.0pp $488	-0.5pp $421	base $352	+0.5pp $282	+1.0pp $211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 Ben Grady Dr Ellabell, GA	4.0	2.5	2481	$2,650	$1.07	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $270,000 Pending 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $270,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $270,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $280,000 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $280,000 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $280,000 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $280,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $280,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-05-16
    price $280,000 99-char remark

    Show marketing remark (99 chars)

    very close to Hyundai Motor Group Meta plant America (HMGMA) 6.3mile about 10min motivated seller

13. 2026-04-11
    listed $2,500
14. 2026-04-10
    price $290,000 99-char remark

    Show marketing remark (99 chars)

    very close to Hyundai Motor Group Meta plant America (HMGMA) 6.3mile about 10min motivated seller

15. 2026-01-23
    listed $300,000 Active 99-char remark

    Show marketing remark (99 chars)

    very close to Hyundai Motor Group Meta plant America (HMGMA) 6.3mile about 10min motivated seller

16. 2023-02-06
    soldstatus $240,000
17. 2023-01-27
    soldstatus $240,000 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Nestled in Bryan Wood Estates and the Bryan County School District is this cozy, two story home. Situated on 1.28 acres , it offers space for everyone's cars, boats, trailers, and recreational vehicles, in addition to a 2 car garage. The large yard and backyard with privacy fence are perfect whether enjoying all the seasons or for pets and loved ones. Mature landscaping offers a great amount of privacy and shade on those sunny days. With two entrances and a versatile floor plan, there are both a formal living room and den, large kitchen & eat-in kitchen with island and 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and powder room. Special features such as a Shiplap wall, tasteful wood flooring and tile throughout, tons of natural light and recessed lighting make this open & airy home ready for your special touch. Sale is subject to 3rd party approval.

18. 2022-10-21
    historical

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Nestled in Bryan Wood Estates and the Bryan County School District is this cozy, two story home. Situated on 1.28 acres , it offers space for everyone's cars, boats, trailers, and recreational vehicles, in addition to a 2 car garage. The large yard and backyard with privacy fence are perfect whether enjoying all the seasons or for pets and loved ones. Mature landscaping offers a great amount of privacy and shade on those sunny days. With two entrances and a versatile floor plan, there are both a formal living room and den, large kitchen & eat-in kitchen with island and 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and powder room. Special features such as a Shiplap wall, tasteful wood flooring and tile throughout, tons of natural light and recessed lighting make this open & airy home ready for your special touch. Sale is subject to 3rd party approval.

19. 2022-10-21
    listed $249,000 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Nestled in Bryan Wood Estates and the Bryan County School District is this cozy, two story home. Situated on 1.28 acres , it offers space for everyone's cars, boats, trailers, and recreational vehicles, in addition to a 2 car garage. The large yard and backyard with privacy fence are perfect whether enjoying all the seasons or for pets and loved ones. Mature landscaping offers a great amount of privacy and shade on those sunny days. With two entrances and a versatile floor plan, there are both a formal living room and den, large kitchen & eat-in kitchen with island and 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and powder room. Special features such as a Shiplap wall, tasteful wood flooring and tile throughout, tons of natural light and recessed lighting make this open & airy home ready for your special touch. Sale is subject to 3rd party approval.

20. 2022-10-21
    historical

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Nestled in Bryan Wood Estates and the Bryan County School District is this cozy, two story home. Situated on 1.28 acres , it offers space for everyone's cars, boats, trailers, and recreational vehicles, in addition to a 2 car garage. The large yard and backyard with privacy fence are perfect whether enjoying all the seasons or for pets and loved ones. Mature landscaping offers a great amount of privacy and shade on those sunny days. With two entrances and a versatile floor plan, there are both a formal living room and den, large kitchen & eat-in kitchen with island and 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and powder room. Special features such as a Shiplap wall, tasteful wood flooring and tile throughout, tons of natural light and recessed lighting make this open & airy home ready for your special touch. Sale is subject to 3rd party approval.

21. 2022-05-19
    listed $289,000
22. 2022-05-19
    listed $289,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,555 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,555 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$2,555
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,544
• − Management: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$41
• After-tax cash flow: $4,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan County
• NCES district ID: 1300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,465
• Composite: 44.99/100
• National rank: #2701
• State rank: #14 of 174 in GA

Livability — Pembroke

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #9707

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,814

Population outlook (Bryan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,980 people
• By 2030: 51,583 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 63,184 · +37.4%
• By 2050: 75,400 · +64.0%
• By 2075: 105,363 · +129.1%
• By 2100: 124,959 · +171.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bryan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.3) · D 31.6% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.3pp toward D · 2008: -42.6pp · 2024: -36.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.3 2020: R+35.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+42.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.60%
• Current HPI: 249.2442
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $280,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed for Rent $2,500 NCRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $290,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $300,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-27 Sold (MLS) $240,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-10-21 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2022-10-21 Listed $249,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-10-21 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2022-05-19 Listed $289,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-05-19 Listed $289,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,555 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.