3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,657 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 50 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,712/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,457
Tax + insurance
−$1,417
HOA
−$128
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,200
Net cashflow
$-1,490/mo
Annual
$-17,876/yr
Cap rate
4.19%
Cash-on-cash
-7.51%
DSCR
0.67
1% rule
0.67%
Cash to close
$238,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $850k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $634k (25.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $571k (32.8% below list).
It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($824k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $571k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $64k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $59k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#23 in CT, #1,655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
Greenwich School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #12 of 153 in CT (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Julian Curtiss School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #195 of 553 statewide, top 37%, 241 students, 41% FRL); Central Middle School (math 60% / reading 71%, grade A-, #26 of 175 statewide, top 16%, 506 students, 18% FRL); Greenwich High School (math 59% / reading 78%, grade B, #23 of 194 statewide, top 12%, 2,668 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 26% FRL vs 11% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 129 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $515k; list at $850k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 0.7% in Greenwich — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $5,712/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($147k/yr) (locally 1088% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29