4800 N 68th St #375

Scottsdale, AZ 85251

$298,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,398 sqft · Built 1969 · Townhouse · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,443/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax + insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$1,141
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$723
• Net cashflow: $-177/mo
• Annual: $-2,118/yr
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.54%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $83,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $298k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (10.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $298k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $267k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hopi Elementary School (math 77% / reading 78%, grade A, #21 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 676 students, 10% FRL); Ingleside Middle School (math 46% / reading 50%, grade C-, #35 of 218 statewide, top 16%, 777 students, 40% FRL); Arcadia High School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #109 of 381 statewide, top 29%, 1,602 students, 30% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 582 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 15 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.