9156 Aurelia Ave

Ruskin, FL 34219

$307,204D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,691 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,796/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,611
• Tax + insurance: −$512
• HOA: −$159
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $-73/mo
• Annual: $-874/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $86,017

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $307k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-874/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (9.0% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $280k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.