9156 Aurelia Ave · Ruskin, FL 34219

$307,204

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,691 sqft · Land · 34 Days on market

Built 2025 1,980 sqft lot $159/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome to the Lakewood, a thoughtfully designed 1,691 square foot townhome that offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. Featuring three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a convenient powder room, and a one-car garage, this home is ideal for modern living. Step inside to an inviting open-concept main floor that seamlessly integrates the kitchen, dining, and great room areas—perfect for entertaining or everyday life. The L-shaped kitchen is a chef’s delight, boasting L2 Frost White quartz countertops on top of Elkins PureStyle White shaker style cabinets, a walk-in pantry, and a generous island with a flush breakfast bar that comfortably sea

Key facts

• L-shaped kitchen
• Storage closet
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN FLOOR
• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SCREENED IN COVERED LANAI
• STORAGE CLOSET
• BACKS UP TO THE WETLANDS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $307k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-874/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $279,641 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-62,476
• Equity at exit: $45,805

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-91,480
• Equity at exit: $26,561

Cash invested: $86,017 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,796 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,611
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$384 /mo · $4,608/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$159
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,889

Max offer price $296,662

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $33	+0% $-73	+5% $-179	+10% $-285
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-183	+0% $-73	+5% $38	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $82	-0.5pp $5	base $-73	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,801
• Closing costs: $9,216
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8850 Ginko Run Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,600	$1.54	16d	1	0.19mi
12484 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,600	$1.71	24d	1	0.78mi
12573 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,500	$1.65	3d	1	0.87mi
10048 Big Marsh Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$2,825	$1.39	24d	1	1.17mi
7148 Boggy Creek Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,929	$1.52	3d	1	1.23mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	3d	1	1.48mi
9928 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,450	$1.63	16d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $159 · $1,908/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-20
   price $307,204
3. 2025-12-17
   listed $317,204 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,208
• − Property taxes: −$4,608
• − Insurance: −$1,536
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,685
• − Management: −$2,685
• − HOA: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$8,937
• Taxable loss: −$6,009
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,442
• After-tax cash flow: $568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $307,204 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listed $317,204 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid