14831 Bancroft Ave #27

San Leandro, CA 94578

$83,999B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 470 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Active · 215 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,878/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$440
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $903/mo
• Annual: $10,838/yr
• Cap rate: 19.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.08%
• DSCR: 3.05
• 1% rule: 2.24%
• Cash to close: $23,520

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $903 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $580 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#289 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• San Leandro Unified (urban): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #831 of 1,400 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 53 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 2.0% in San Leandro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major: roof — Siding condition suggests underlying roof issues
• Major: interior walls/paint — Poor exterior suggests interior may be subpar
• Major: bathrooms — Poor exterior suggests interior may be subpar
• Major: kitchen — Poor exterior suggests interior may be subpar
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — Poor exterior suggests interior may be subpar