14831 Bancroft Ave #27 · San Leandro, CA 94578

$83,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 470 sqft · Manufactured · 215 Days on market

Built 2015 Poor condition $179/sqft · at area comps Est $86k · at est. ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy 1 Bedroom Manufactured Home in San Leandro – A Commuter’s Dream! Welcome to this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home perfectly situated in the heart of San Leandro. Ideal for first-time buyers, down-sizers, or commuters, this home offers comfort, convenience, and unbeatable accessibility. Step inside to a bright and inviting living space that flows into a functional kitchen, making everyday living simple and comfortable. The bedroom is well-sized for restful nights, and the bathroom is clean and well-maintained. Located just steps from shopping centers and within walking distance to BART, this home is a rare find for anyone looking for easy transit options. With quick access to Highways 880 and 580, getting around the Bay Area has never been easier — truly a commuter’s special! Homes like this don’t come around often and won’t last long. See it today before it’s gone!

Key facts

• Built 2015
• Listed 214 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $903 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 2.0% in San Leandro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#289 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• San Leandro Unified (urban): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #831 of 1,400 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 53 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $580 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $73,919 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.08%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,948
• List price: $83,999
• Delta: -2.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $44,358
• Equity at exit: $12,525

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $114,531
• Equity at exit: $7,263

Cash invested: $23,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94578

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$440
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$105 /mo · $1,260/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $735

Max offer price $83,999

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,000
• Closing costs: $2,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $83,999 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $83,999 Active 214 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $83,999 Active 213 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $83,999 Active 212 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $83,999 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $83,999 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $83,999 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $83,999 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $83,999 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $83,999 Active 200 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $83,999 Active 199 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $83,999 Active 198 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $83,999 Active 197 DOM
14. 2026-04-25
    status Active 944-char remark

    Show marketing remark (944 chars)

    Cozy 1 Bedroom Manufactured Home in San Leandro – A Commuter’s Dream! Welcome to this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home perfectly situated in the heart of San Leandro. Ideal for first-time buyers, down-sizers, or commuters, this home offers comfort, convenience, and unbeatable accessibility. Step inside to a bright and inviting living space that flows into a functional kitchen, making everyday living simple and comfortable. The bedroom is well-sized for restful nights, and the bathroom is clean and well-maintained. Located just steps from shopping centers and within walking distance to BART, this home is a rare find for anyone looking for easy transit options. With quick access to Highways 880 and 580, getting around the Bay Area has never been easier — truly a commuter’s special! Homes like this don’t come around often and won’t last long. See it today before it’s gone!

15. 2026-04-25
    price $83,999 944-char remark

    Show marketing remark (944 chars)

    Cozy 1 Bedroom Manufactured Home in San Leandro – A Commuter’s Dream! Welcome to this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home perfectly situated in the heart of San Leandro. Ideal for first-time buyers, down-sizers, or commuters, this home offers comfort, convenience, and unbeatable accessibility. Step inside to a bright and inviting living space that flows into a functional kitchen, making everyday living simple and comfortable. The bedroom is well-sized for restful nights, and the bathroom is clean and well-maintained. Located just steps from shopping centers and within walking distance to BART, this home is a rare find for anyone looking for easy transit options. With quick access to Highways 880 and 580, getting around the Bay Area has never been easier — truly a commuter’s special! Homes like this don’t come around often and won’t last long. See it today before it’s gone!

16. 2026-04-22
    status Pending 944-char remark

    Show marketing remark (944 chars)

    Cozy 1 Bedroom Manufactured Home in San Leandro – A Commuter’s Dream! Welcome to this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home perfectly situated in the heart of San Leandro. Ideal for first-time buyers, down-sizers, or commuters, this home offers comfort, convenience, and unbeatable accessibility. Step inside to a bright and inviting living space that flows into a functional kitchen, making everyday living simple and comfortable. The bedroom is well-sized for restful nights, and the bathroom is clean and well-maintained. Located just steps from shopping centers and within walking distance to BART, this home is a rare find for anyone looking for easy transit options. With quick access to Highways 880 and 580, getting around the Bay Area has never been easier — truly a commuter’s special! Homes like this don’t come around often and won’t last long. See it today before it’s gone!

17. 2026-02-23
    price $86,398 944-char remark

    Show marketing remark (944 chars)

    Cozy 1 Bedroom Manufactured Home in San Leandro – A Commuter’s Dream! Welcome to this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home perfectly situated in the heart of San Leandro. Ideal for first-time buyers, down-sizers, or commuters, this home offers comfort, convenience, and unbeatable accessibility. Step inside to a bright and inviting living space that flows into a functional kitchen, making everyday living simple and comfortable. The bedroom is well-sized for restful nights, and the bathroom is clean and well-maintained. Located just steps from shopping centers and within walking distance to BART, this home is a rare find for anyone looking for easy transit options. With quick access to Highways 880 and 580, getting around the Bay Area has never been easier — truly a commuter’s special! Homes like this don’t come around often and won’t last long. See it today before it’s gone!

18. 2025-12-22
    price $89,988 944-char remark

    Show marketing remark (944 chars)

    Cozy 1 Bedroom Manufactured Home in San Leandro – A Commuter’s Dream! Welcome to this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home perfectly situated in the heart of San Leandro. Ideal for first-time buyers, down-sizers, or commuters, this home offers comfort, convenience, and unbeatable accessibility. Step inside to a bright and inviting living space that flows into a functional kitchen, making everyday living simple and comfortable. The bedroom is well-sized for restful nights, and the bathroom is clean and well-maintained. Located just steps from shopping centers and within walking distance to BART, this home is a rare find for anyone looking for easy transit options. With quick access to Highways 880 and 580, getting around the Bay Area has never been easier — truly a commuter’s special! Homes like this don’t come around often and won’t last long. See it today before it’s gone!

19. 2025-11-12
    listed $99,998 Active 944-char remark

    Show marketing remark (944 chars)

    Cozy 1 Bedroom Manufactured Home in San Leandro – A Commuter’s Dream! Welcome to this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home perfectly situated in the heart of San Leandro. Ideal for first-time buyers, down-sizers, or commuters, this home offers comfort, convenience, and unbeatable accessibility. Step inside to a bright and inviting living space that flows into a functional kitchen, making everyday living simple and comfortable. The bedroom is well-sized for restful nights, and the bathroom is clean and well-maintained. Located just steps from shopping centers and within walking distance to BART, this home is a rare find for anyone looking for easy transit options. With quick access to Highways 880 and 580, getting around the Bay Area has never been easier — truly a commuter’s special! Homes like this don’t come around often and won’t last long. See it today before it’s gone!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,705
• − Property taxes: −$1,260
• − Insurance: −$420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$2,444
• Taxable income: $10,102
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,425
• After-tax cash flow: $8,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates to its exterior and interior, significantly impacting its value. Immediate repairs are needed to address major damage and enhance curb appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major roof — Siding condition suggests underlying roof issues
• Major interior walls/paint — Poor exterior suggests interior may be subpar
• Major bathrooms — Poor exterior suggests interior may be subpar
• Major kitchen — Poor exterior suggests interior may be subpar
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Poor exterior suggests interior may be subpar
• Major landscaping — No visible landscaping, suggesting lack of curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and paint exterior — Improves curb appeal and interior condition
• Both repair and replace siding — Fixes major damage and enhances curb appeal
• Both repair and replace roof — Fixes major damage and enhances overall condition
• Both update HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both landscape and add curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant damage and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Siding condition suggests underlying roof issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Poor exterior suggests interior may be subpar	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · Poor exterior suggests interior may be subpar	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · Poor exterior suggests interior may be subpar	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Poor exterior suggests interior may be subpar	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · No visible landscaping, suggesting lack of curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and paint exterior — Improves curb appeal and interior condition ↑
• Both repair and replace siding — Fixes major damage and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both repair and replace roof — Fixes major damage and enhances overall condition ↑
• Both update HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both landscape and add curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Leandro Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634680
• Math proficiency: 28% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,377
• Composite: 34.23/100
• National rank: #10252
• State rank: #831 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Leandro

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #9768

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Leandro, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 88,086
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,769
• Household income: $94,084
• Rent vs Own: 55.9% rent · 44.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2010.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Asian 26% Black 18% White 14% Two or more races 12% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 11% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -771.92%
• Current HPI: 302.7379
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $83,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-22 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $86,398 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $89,988 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-12 Listed $99,998 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR