2252 Mabelle Ave

Humboldt Hill, CA 95503

$215,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,935/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $228/mo
• Annual: $2,738/yr
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.55%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (10.0% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $193k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#423 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Pine Hill Elementary (math 34% / reading 24%, grade F, #856 of 1,571 statewide, top 57%, 221 students, 73% FRL); South Bay Elementary (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #443 of 498 statewide, top 90%, 127 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.7% in Humboldt Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.