2252 Mabelle Ave · Humboldt Hill, CA 95503

$215,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1973 7,405 sqft lot Est $355k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in a desirable location, this property offers a rare opportunity to create something truly special. Set on an oversized lot, the grounds are a standout feature--featuring a beautiful backyard filled with mature fruit trees, including cherry, apple, plum, and peach, along with blueberries, huckleberries, and more. It's a peaceful, established setting with plenty of space to garden, relax, or expand your vision. The home itself is ready for its next chapter and will require updates and improvements, making it best suited for a cash buyer or someone ready to invest in bringing it back to its full potential. With a little imagination and effort, this property could truly shine. Here is

Key facts

• Mature fruit trees
• Oversized lot
• Beautiful backyard

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• BEAUTIFUL BACKYARD
• MATURE FRUIT TREES
• CHERRY APPLE PLUM PEACH
• BLUEBERRIES HUCKLEBERRIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.7% in Humboldt Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#423 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $193,461 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.55%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $355,000
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2252 Mabelle Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$205,000	$205	99
7177 David Ave	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,000 (0%)	14mo	$355,000	$355	86
7160 David Ave	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	977 (-2%)	12mo	$420,000	$430	75
2505 Donna Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,150 (+15%)	18mo	$386,000	$336	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-20,390
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $615
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95503

• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,935 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $997/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,646

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $350	-5% $289	+0% $228	+5% $167	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $75	-5% $152	+0% $228	+5% $305	+10% $381
Rate	-1.0pp $336	-0.5pp $283	base $228	+0.5pp $172	+1.0pp $116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $997 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,634 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$637/yr (+$53/mo · 63.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥78°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$997
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$869
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$209
• After-tax cash flow: $2,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Humboldt Hill

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #14428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Humboldt Hill, CA
• County: Humboldt County · 88,652 people
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• Population (ZIP): 25,054
• Household income: $71,855
• Rent vs Own: 30.5% rent · 69.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -268.60%
• Current HPI: 235.5679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — HAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $215,000 HAR

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $997 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.