22402 River View Dr

Lake California, CA 96022

$315,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,476/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $39/mo
• Annual: $467/yr
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($467/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (21.4% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $248k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#767 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Evergreen Union (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #226 of 517 in CA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evergreen Elementary (math 40% / reading 51%, grade D-, #485 of 1,571 statewide, top 31%, 525 students, 59% FRL); Evergreen Middle (math 32% / reading 50%, grade F, #148 of 498 statewide, top 30%, 400 students, 56% FRL); Red Bluff High (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #702 of 1,170 statewide, top 61%, 1,618 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 42% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Lake California — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.