22402 River View Dr · Lake California, CA 96022

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1979 0.25 ac lot Est $297k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Recently renovated and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a bright, open layout designed for both everyday living and gathering. The spacious kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, creating a natural hub for hosting or simply enjoying time at home. You'll find thoughtful updates throughout, including all-new appliances, with a refrigerator, stove, washer and dryer, plus a stand-up freezer already in place. A newer roof adds peace of mind, while fresh carpet in every bedroom brings a clean, comfortable feel. In the living room, a stone fireplace becomes the cozy centerpiece, perfect for cooler evenings and quiet nights in. Step outside to a large, level bac

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Swimming pool
• Private airstrip

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• STONE FIREPLACE
• LARGE LEVEL BACKYARD
• PRIVATE AIRSTRIP
• EQUESTRIAN CENTER
• SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Enter through Lake California Dr., turn left onto River View.
• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Oversized guest garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Raised foundation; Composition roof; Built with wood construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Asphalt road access; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($467/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Lake California — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#767 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Evergreen Union (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #226 of 517 in CA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,569 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19618 Stoneyford Pl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+0%)	5mo	$310,000	$234	86
19662 White Horse Pl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+6%)	2mo	$340,000	$243	81
19625 Gazelle Place Pl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+6%)	3mo	$364,000	$260	78
19795 Beegum Peak Pl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+7%)	4mo	$312,500	$222	77
19998 Indian Tom Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+1%)	2mo	$317,500	$238	71
22409 Plumas Pl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+5%)	6mo	$315,000	$228	70
19614 Freshwater Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+2%)	10mo	$145,000	$108	68
19650 Freshwater Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+10%)	2mo	$271,000	$187	67
19651 Valley Ford Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,298 (-2%)	4mo	$275,000	$212	66
19560 Covington Mill Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+2%)	4mo	$275,000	$205	61
19530 Wildwood Pl	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+6%)	5mo	$310,000	$221	60
19572 Covington Mill Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+8%)	7mo	$320,000	$225	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-48,686
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-39,700
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96022

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,476 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,605/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,426

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $128	+0% $39	+5% $-50	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-157	-5% $-59	+0% $39	+5% $137	+10% $235
Rate	-1.0pp $198	-0.5pp $119	base $39	+0.5pp $-43	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19959 Indian Tom Dr Cottonwood, CA	3.0	2.0	1682	$2,700	$1.61	22d	1	0.45mi
21967 Klamath River Pl Unit A Cottonwood, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,095	$1.68	22d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $315,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $315,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   price $315,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $320,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $320,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $320,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $320,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $320,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $320,000 Active 22 DOM
19. 2026-05-08
    listed $320,000 Active
20. 2026-04-24
    listed $332,400 Active
21. 2026-01-31
    price $332,400
22. 2025-12-12
    price $334,900
23. 2025-10-24
    listed $339,900 Active
24. 2024-11-04
    soldstatus $305,000 Closed
25. 2024-11-01
    soldstatus $305,000
26. 2024-09-16
    status Pending
27. 2024-07-24
    listed $295,000 Active
28. 2020-11-30
    soldstatus $219,000
29. 2008-02-27
    soldstatus $148,500
30. 2005-05-02
    soldstatus $167,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,605 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,394 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$789/yr (+$66/mo · 49.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,605
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,377
• − Management: −$2,377
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$5,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,208
• After-tax cash flow: $1,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evergreen Union
• NCES district ID: 0613170
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,783
• Composite: 35.24/100
• National rank: #4978
• State rank: #226 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake California

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #767
• US rank: #22243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake California, CA
• Population (ZIP): 16,497

Population outlook (Tehama County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,058 people
• By 2030: 59,493 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 56,076 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 52,372 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 43,895 · -28.1%
• By 2100: 34,186 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tehama

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 27.9% · R 69.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.22%
• Current HPI: 364.3174
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+91.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $320,000 SAOR
• 2026-04-24 Listed $332,400 SAOR
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $332,400 SAOR
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $334,900 SAOR
• 2025-10-24 Listed $339,900 SAOR
• 2024-11-04 Sold (MLS) $305,000 SAOR
• 2024-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records
• 2024-09-16 Pending — SAOR
• 2024-07-24 Listed $295,000 SAOR
• 2020-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $219,000 Public Records
• 2008-02-27 Sold (MLS) $148,500 CRMLS
• 2005-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,605 · -38.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.