6447 Holiday Valley Rd Unit 401/403-2

Ellicottville, NY 14731

$79,900D

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 848 sqft · Built 2009 · Condo · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $850/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$232
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $-179/mo
• Annual: $-2,149/yr
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.04%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-179 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $54k (32.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $54k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#422 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellicottville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #179 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 0.6% in Ellicottville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.