6447 Holiday Valley Rd Unit 401/403-2 · Ellicottville, NY 14731

$79,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 848 sqft · Condo · 79 Days on market

Built 2009 Fair condition $94/sqft · 28% below area Est $110k · 28% under $232/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located at the heart of Holiday Valley Resort, this Fourth floor One bedroom deluxe layout that accommodates up 8 people if using the full unit. The lockout option gives you the chance to use both sides, or just use half and rent the other half. Fractional ownership gives you 10-11 rotating weeks per year with options for additional usage based on occupancy. Ownership amenities include discounts on lift tickets, golf, private owner locker rooms, private owner's lounge, underground parking while lodging overnight, valet parking, and year 'round access to the heated indoor/outdoor pool, hot tubs, sauna and fitness center.

Key facts

• Underground parking
• Fourth floor
• Fractional ownership

Tags

• FOURTH FLOOR
• LOCKOUT OPTION
• FRACTIONAL OWNERSHIP
• PRIVATE OWNER LOCKER ROOMS
• PRIVATE OWNER'S LOUNGE
• UNDERGROUND PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-179 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $54k (32.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 0.6% in Ellicottville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#422 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellicottville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #179 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,985 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.04%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,240
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -27.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-24,157
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-34,926
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14731

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$232
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $-179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,077

Max offer price $53,985

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $232 · $2,784/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    listed $79,900 Active 627-char remark

    Show marketing remark (627 chars)

    Located at the heart of Holiday Valley Resort, this Fourth floor One bedroom deluxe layout that accommodates up 8 people if using the full unit. The lockout option gives you the chance to use both sides, or just use half and rent the other half. Fractional ownership gives you 10-11 rotating weeks per year with options for additional usage based on occupancy. Ownership amenities include discounts on lift tickets, golf, private owner locker rooms, private owner's lounge, underground parking while lodging overnight, valet parking, and year 'round access to the heated indoor/outdoor pool, hot tubs, sauna and fitness center.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$1,197
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − HOA: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable loss: −$3,411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$819
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The property is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed. Painting and landscaping would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances the property's visual appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances the property's visual appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellicottville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610530
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,528
• Composite: 55.33/100
• National rank: #1258
• State rank: #179 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ellicottville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,198

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.11%
• Current HPI: 280.7168
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS