42 Cavalier Ct

Timberlake, VA 24502

$179,900C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,688/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$155
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $100/mo
• Annual: $1,195/yr
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.37%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (6.2% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, schools F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $180k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.8% in Timberlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.