42 Cavalier Ct · Timberlake, VA 24502

$179,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1986 2,614 sqft lot $141/sqft · 34% below area Est $273k · 34% under $155/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

End-unit townhome just waiting for you to put your own personal touch on it! Features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, cozy living room, formal dining room with brick fireplace. All appliances convey. Sold As-Is.

Key facts

• $155 HOA
• Built 1986
• Listed 27 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.8% in Timberlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, schools F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $180k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,824 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.37%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,399
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -34.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Briar Cliff Cir	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-2%)	16mo	$269,900	$214	63
212 Deerwood Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,245 (-3%)	17mo	$270,000	$217	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-19,127
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,274
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $729/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,562

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Melissa Ln Unit 1 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1490	$1,795	$1.20	21d	1	0.39mi
151 Kitty Hawk Sq Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,450	$0.81	21d	1	0.52mi
318 Meridian St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,995	$1.25	44d	1	0.74mi
211 Meridian St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1815	$2,300	$1.27	13d	1	0.75mi
120 Clubhouse Dr Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$1,325	$1.20	13d	1	0.80mi
22 Apala Cir Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,250	$1.61	13d	1	0.80mi
121 Colonnade St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	44d	1	0.81mi
28 Oak Haven Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1833	$1,750	$0.95	21d	1	0.83mi
419 Rotunda St #2001 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,875	$1.30	44d	1	0.86mi
419 Rotunda St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,875	$1.34	21d	1	0.86mi
119 Cornerstone St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,595	$1.18	21d	1	0.86mi
120 Portico St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	44d	1	0.89mi
503 Barrington Way Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.5	1545	$1,795	$1.16	13d	1	0.90mi
142 Mesena Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1173	$1,275	$1.09	44d	1	0.91mi
105 Capital St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,449	$1.45	13d	14	0.94mi
100 Capstone Dr #303 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,250	$2.19	44d	1	0.94mi
302 Capstone Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	44d	1	0.96mi
203 Capital St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1143	$1,585	$1.39	13d	20	0.96mi
41 Lynette Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,595	$1.28	44d	1	1.05mi
104 Tanzalon Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,995	$1.33	13d	1	1.20mi
112 Mozart Ln Unit 2301 1559SF 3BD/2BA Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1559	$1,695	$1.09	13d	1	1.29mi
112 Mozart Ln Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,575	$1.38	21d	1	1.29mi
9 Fonda Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	948	$1,138	$1.20	44d	1	1.39mi
16 Duiguid Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	948	$1,138	$1.20	21d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   listed $179,900 Active 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   End-unit townhome just waiting for you to put your own personal touch on it! Features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, cozy living room, formal dining room with brick fireplace. All appliances convey. Sold As-Is.

2. 1991-09-26
   soldstatus $60,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $729 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$747/yr (+$62/mo · 102.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$729
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,621
• − Management: −$1,621
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$1,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$428
• After-tax cash flow: $1,623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100600
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,915
• Composite: 51.88/100
• National rank: #1656
• State rank: #55 of 131 in VA

Livability — Timberlake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Timberlake, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,306 people
• By 2030: 56,366 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 55,406 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 53,011 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 45,932 · -18.4%
• By 2100: 36,029 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 25.3% · R 73.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+44.1 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+195.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $179,900 LMLS
• 1991-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $60,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $729 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.