164 Wagon Train Trl

Bozeman, MT 59715

$115,000B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,775/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$720
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $678/mo
• Annual: $8,133/yr
• Cap rate: 13.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.26%
• DSCR: 2.12
• 1% rule: 2.41%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#1 in MT, #537 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D-.
• Bozeman Elementary (town): math 56% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #7 of 116 in MT (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 298 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,706 units permitted in Gallatin County in 2024 (533 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gallatin County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 2.1% in Bozeman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.