164 Wagon Train Trl · Bozeman, MT 59715

$115,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 1969 Good condition $720/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1969
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Covered Wagon Mobile Home Park; directions: Wagon Wheel Park on the corner of Oak and 19th Street
• Financial info: Land is leased; Annual tax approximately $300
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association; HOA includes sewer, trash and water; HOA parking available; HOA fee $720 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (see remarks)
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Single wide manufactured body type
• Exterior features: Deck; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher, Range, Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Range, Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 2.1% in Bozeman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#1 in MT, #537 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D-.
• Bozeman Elementary (town): math 56% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #7 of 116 in MT (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 298 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,706 units permitted in Gallatin County in 2024 (533 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gallatin County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.26%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $17,409
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $43,200
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59715

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 298
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,775 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$720
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $678

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,917

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
603 Emily Dr Bozeman, MT	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$2,384	$2.22	21d	3	0.48mi
2503 Lily Dr Bozeman, MT	4.0	2.0	2088	$3,250	$1.56	21d	1	0.59mi
1481 N 25th Ave Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$2,050	$2.31	21d	21	0.64mi
1810 N 25th Ave Bozeman, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1188	$8,250	$6.94	21d	210	0.65mi
1624 Gale Ct Bozeman, MT	3.0	3.0	2214	$3,450	$1.56	21d	1	0.79mi
303 N 9th Ave Unit 307 Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	1193	$1,900	$1.59	21d	1	0.83mi
1624 W Babcock St Bozeman, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,465	$2.37	21d	6	0.97mi
2130 S 18th Ave Bozeman, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1438	$4,140	$2.88	21d	28	1.04mi
109 Meghans Way Bozeman, MT	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,500	$3.18	21d	1	1.06mi
818 W Babcock St Bozeman, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$5,195	$5.18	21d	8	1.07mi
1504 New Holland Dr Bozeman, MT	3.0	2.5	1581	$3,250	$2.06	21d	1	1.07mi
516 N Willson Ave Bozeman, MT	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,850	$1.43	21d	1	1.11mi
304 S 20th Ave Bozeman, MT	3.0	1.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	21d	1	1.12mi
406 S 20th Ave Unit A Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,750	$1.67	21d	1	1.20mi
111 W Lamme St Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$3,100	$3.08	21d	10	1.21mi
3657 Laduke St Bozeman, MT	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	21d	1	1.35mi
2689 Blackbird Dr Unit 1 Bozeman, MT	3.0	2.5	1725	$3,000	$1.74	21d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $720 · $8,640/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,664
• − Management: −$2,664
• − HOA: −$8,640
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $7,248
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,739
• After-tax cash flow: $6,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 29 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and clean interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bozeman Elementary
• NCES district ID: 3004560
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,664
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1635
• State rank: #7 of 116 in MT

Livability — Bozeman

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #537

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime D Employment B- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Gallatin County · 108,510 people
• City population: 84,228
• Metro: Bozeman, MT
• Population (ZIP): 39,643
• Household income: $88,407
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1884.0

Population outlook (Gallatin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,625 people
• By 2030: 144,940 · +11.8%
• By 2040: 176,266 · +36.0%
• By 2050: 209,250 · +61.4%
• By 2075: 294,207 · +127.0%
• By 2100: 360,558 · +178.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gallatin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 46.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 3.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.2 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+1.0 2012: R+5.3 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -410.90%
• Current HPI: 276.5017
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.20%
• Metro: Bozeman, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $115,000 MRMLS