8527 Manley Vines Camp Rd

Birmingham, AL 35023

$174,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,107 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,466/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-51/mo
• Annual: $-607/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $48,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-607/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (16.2% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $160 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Oak Grove Elementary School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #267 of 627 statewide, top 45%, 570 students, 53% FRL); Oak Grove High School (math 7% / reading 29%, grade F, #187 of 305 statewide, top 62%, 744 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.