8527 Manley Vines Camp Rd · Birmingham, AL 35023

$174,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,107 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1965 2.71 ac lot $158/sqft · at area comps Est $177k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

This cute cottage is a perfect starter home with almost 3 acres of land and did I mention its zoned for OAK GROVE schools!?! SO much potential with a beautiful level yard and room to grow! Hardwood floors under existing carpet. Just a short drive to the river for fishing and sunny days! HVAC only 2 years old! There is a Dollar General and gas station within one mile of home

Key facts

• Beautiful level yard
• 2.71 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• ALMOST 3 ACRES OF LAND
• ZONED FOR OAK GROVE SCHOOLS
• BEAUTIFUL LEVEL YARD
• SHORT DRIVE TO THE RIVER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Oak Grove; Driving directions: From HWY 269, Left on Alliance Short Creek Rd, then Rt on Alliance Rd and Left on Manley Vines Road; home on right
• Financial info: Down payment assistance available; Fire fee: $300 yearly; Garbage fee: $75 quarterly
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Circular drive; Driveway parking; Parking on main level; One carport space
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Electric water heater; Internet service availability unknown
• Home design: Single-family property (existing); Not a log home; Tri-level: no; Split level: no; Split foyer: no
• Construction: Siding (other); Basement foundation; Year built listed as existing
• Exterior features: Open deck; No pool; No patio; No garden/patio; Not waterfront; Flood plain: no; Lot view: no; Approximately 2.71 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Electric cooktop; Built-in dishwasher; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on level 1
• Flooring: Hardwood under carpet; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Den/family room; Full basement (all unfinished, concrete block); Attic; Ceilings: other (see remarks); No additional built-in interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-607/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Oak Grove Elementary School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #267 of 627 statewide, top 45%, 570 students, 53% FRL); Oak Grove High School (math 7% / reading 29%, grade F, #187 of 305 statewide, top 62%, 744 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $160 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,601 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,575
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -0.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.6% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-15,224
• Equity at exit: $45,601

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,851
• Equity at exit: $50,832

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35023

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $167,586

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-27
   listed $174,900 Active 376-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,407
• − Management: −$1,407
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$3,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$865
• After-tax cash flow: $259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 25,533
• Household income: $69,863
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 247.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.60%
• Current HPI: 389.38
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $174,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $276 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.