5308 W Desert Hollow Dr

Phoenix, AZ 85083

$518,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,751 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,780/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,716
• Tax + insurance: −$395
• HOA: −$108
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $-1,023/mo
• Annual: $-12,274/yr
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.46%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $145,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $518k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (34.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (46.3% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($487k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $278k (46.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $303k; list at $518k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.