5308 W Desert Hollow Dr · Phoenix, AZ 85083

$518,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,751 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2006 6,250 sqft lot $296/sqft · at area comps Est $537k · at est. $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Stetson Valley -- Where Comfort Meets Community! Nestled in one of the most sought-after neighborhoods in the valley, this beautifully maintained home is move-in ready and waiting for you. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the smart split-bedroom floor plan offers both privacy and functionality for everyday living. The heart of this home is the gorgeous kitchen, boasting granite countertops, a decorative tile backsplash, a gas cooktop, and a center island with a breakfast bar which is perfect for morning coffee or entertaining guests. The open layout flows seamlessly into the family room, while a separate formal living room adds extra versatility to the space. Retreat to the primary suite featuring a spa-like bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, and a separate shower. Throughout the home, you'll find plantation shutters and ceiling fans in every bedroom, adding both style and comfort year-round. Step outside to your own private oasis that has a professionally landscaped backyard complete with a covered patio and a built-in BBQ grill. Whether you're hosting a summer cookout or enjoying a quiet evening outdoors, this backyard delivers. Located near the scenic trails of Deem Hills Park and top-rated schools, this home truly has it all. This home is a must-see.

Key facts

• 6,250 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $518k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (34.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (46.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (46.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($487k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $303k; list at $518k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $278,039 (46.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.46%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $537,482
• List price: $518,000
• Delta: -3.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5231 W Desert Hollow Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,751 (0%)	8mo	$558,000	$319	87
25612 N 54th Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,816 (+4%)	9mo	$550,000	$303	72
25919 N 54th Ave	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,882 (+8%)	2mo	$410,000	$218	66
25212 N 56th Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,843 (+5%)	7mo	$600,000	$326	64
24813 N 55th Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,691 (-3%)	11mo	$620,000	$367	63
5436 W Chisum Trl	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,719 (-2%)	13mo	$385,000	$224	62
5303 W Hackamore Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,978 (+13%)	11mo	$585,000	$296	61
5339 W Chisum Trl	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,883 (+8%)	6mo	$365,000	$194	60
26408 N 53rd Gln	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,661 (-5%)	11mo	$407,000	$245	52
25913 N 53rd Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,493 (-15%)	9mo	$390,000	$261	49
26405 N Babbling Brook Dr	0.61mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,529 (-13%)	3mo	$369,000	$241	41
26505 N Babbling Brook Dr	0.63mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,529 (-13%)	10mo	$376,800	$246	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $214,822
• Equity at exit: $466,655

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $679,599
• Equity at exit: $1,006,360

Cash invested: $145,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85083

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,780 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,716
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,148/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $-1,023

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,075

Max offer price $337,319

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,500
• Closing costs: $15,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26616 N Babbling Brook Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1306	$1,900	$1.45	43d	1	0.73mi
26681 N Babbling Brook Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,160	$1.15	7d	1	0.76mi
26733 N 53rd Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1306	$4,000	$3.06	43d	1	0.80mi
5340 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,400	$1.28	24d	1	0.83mi
5235 W Blaylock Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2128	$2,850	$1.34	24d	1	0.83mi
5388 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,099	$1.12	7d	1	0.86mi
5118 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2128	$2,450	$1.15	7d	1	0.94mi
27015 N 52nd Gln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$2,795	$1.21	18d	1	0.99mi
6102 W Fallen Leaf Ln Glendale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2018	$2,350	$1.16	24d	1	1.02mi
27105 N 52nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$2,499	$1.08	16d	1	1.04mi
6101 W Whispering Wind Dr Glendale, AZ	4.0	2.5	1938	$2,950	$1.52	17d	1	1.09mi
6124 W Whispering Wind Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,295	$1.76	43d	1	1.12mi
5843 W Cielo Grande Glendale, AZ	4.0	4.0	2457	$4,100	$1.67	7d	1	1.14mi
5925 W Cielo Grande Glendale, AZ	4.0	2.0	1886	$2,695	$1.43	18d	1	1.17mi
5412 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1805	$3,200	$1.77	43d	1	1.19mi
5432 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2103	$2,900	$1.38	12d	1	1.22mi
5414 W Straight Arrow Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1760	$4,500	$2.56	43d	1	1.25mi
25223 N 63rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2113	$2,200	$1.04	43d	1	1.25mi
27424 N 54th Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2104	$2,885	$1.37	1d	1	1.28mi
6326 W El Cortez Pl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2579	$3,450	$1.34	2d	1	1.32mi
6425 W Desert Hollow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2295	$2,250	$0.98	5d	1	1.42mi
6424 W Saddlehorn Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1647	$2,195	$1.33	7d	1	1.42mi
6427 W Villa Linda Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,150	$1.40	43d	1	1.44mi
4325 W Soft Wind Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,000	$1.12	43d	1	1.47mi
4043 W Desert Hollow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,600	$2.06	43d	1	1.49mi
6504 W Saddlehorn Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,245	$1.78	4d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $518,000 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $518,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $518,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $518,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 67 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $518,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 66 DOM
6. 2026-04-23
   price $518,000 1302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1302 chars)

   Welcome to Stetson Valley -- Where Comfort Meets Community! Nestled in one of the most sought-after neighborhoods in the valley, this beautifully maintained home is move-in ready and waiting for you. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the smart split-bedroom floor plan offers both privacy and functionality for everyday living. The heart of this home is the gorgeous kitchen, boasting granite countertops, a decorative tile backsplash, a gas cooktop, and a center island with a breakfast bar which is perfect for morning coffee or entertaining guests. The open layout flows seamlessly into the family room, while a separate formal living room adds extra versatility to the space. Retreat to the primary suite featuring a spa-like bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, and a separate shower. Throughout the home, you'll find plantation shutters and ceiling fans in every bedroom, adding both style and comfort year-round. Step outside to your own private oasis that has a professionally landscaped backyard complete with a covered patio and a built-in BBQ grill. Whether you're hosting a summer cookout or enjoying a quiet evening outdoors, this backyard delivers. Located near the scenic trails of Deem Hills Park and top-rated schools, this home truly has it all. This home is a must-see.

7. 2026-03-26
   listed $525,000 Active 1302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1302 chars)

   Welcome to Stetson Valley -- Where Comfort Meets Community! Nestled in one of the most sought-after neighborhoods in the valley, this beautifully maintained home is move-in ready and waiting for you. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the smart split-bedroom floor plan offers both privacy and functionality for everyday living. The heart of this home is the gorgeous kitchen, boasting granite countertops, a decorative tile backsplash, a gas cooktop, and a center island with a breakfast bar which is perfect for morning coffee or entertaining guests. The open layout flows seamlessly into the family room, while a separate formal living room adds extra versatility to the space. Retreat to the primary suite featuring a spa-like bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, and a separate shower. Throughout the home, you'll find plantation shutters and ceiling fans in every bedroom, adding both style and comfort year-round. Step outside to your own private oasis that has a professionally landscaped backyard complete with a covered patio and a built-in BBQ grill. Whether you're hosting a summer cookout or enjoying a quiet evening outdoors, this backyard delivers. Located near the scenic trails of Deem Hills Park and top-rated schools, this home truly has it all. This home is a must-see.

8. 2018-07-13
   soldstatus $303,000 Closed 569-char remark

   Show marketing remark (569 chars)

   Enjoy living in the beautiful and highly desired Stetson Valley Community. This house is well maintained and ready for immediate move in. 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. Formal living room,family room and split bedrooms. Master bath with separate shower, tub, and dual sinks. Eat in kitchen, Granite counter tops, back splash, gas cook top, island with breakfast bar. Ceiling fans at all bed rooms. Plantation shutters. Professionally landscaped back yard. Covered patio, mountain view. Built-in BBQ grill. High rated schools. Trails at deem hills park. This home is a must see.

9. 2018-07-13
   soldstatus $303,000

   Show marketing remark (569 chars)

   Enjoy living in the beautiful and highly desired Stetson Valley Community. This house is well maintained and ready for immediate move in. 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. Formal living room,family room and split bedrooms. Master bath with separate shower, tub, and dual sinks. Eat in kitchen, Granite counter tops, back splash, gas cook top, island with breakfast bar. Ceiling fans at all bed rooms. Plantation shutters. Professionally landscaped back yard. Covered patio, mountain view. Built-in BBQ grill. High rated schools. Trails at deem hills park. This home is a must see.

10. 2018-06-12
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    Enjoy living in the beautiful and highly desired Stetson Valley Community. This house is well maintained and ready for immediate move in. 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. Formal living room,family room and split bedrooms. Master bath with separate shower, tub, and dual sinks. Eat in kitchen, Granite counter tops, back splash, gas cook top, island with breakfast bar. Ceiling fans at all bed rooms. Plantation shutters. Professionally landscaped back yard. Covered patio, mountain view. Built-in BBQ grill. High rated schools. Trails at deem hills park. This home is a must see.

11. 2018-06-04
    price $310,000 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    Enjoy living in the beautiful and highly desired Stetson Valley Community. This house is well maintained and ready for immediate move in. 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. Formal living room,family room and split bedrooms. Master bath with separate shower, tub, and dual sinks. Eat in kitchen, Granite counter tops, back splash, gas cook top, island with breakfast bar. Ceiling fans at all bed rooms. Plantation shutters. Professionally landscaped back yard. Covered patio, mountain view. Built-in BBQ grill. High rated schools. Trails at deem hills park. This home is a must see.

12. 2018-05-27
    listed $320,000 Active 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    Enjoy living in the beautiful and highly desired Stetson Valley Community. This house is well maintained and ready for immediate move in. 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. Formal living room,family room and split bedrooms. Master bath with separate shower, tub, and dual sinks. Eat in kitchen, Granite counter tops, back splash, gas cook top, island with breakfast bar. Ceiling fans at all bed rooms. Plantation shutters. Professionally landscaped back yard. Covered patio, mountain view. Built-in BBQ grill. High rated schools. Trails at deem hills park. This home is a must see.

13. 2010-05-14
    soldstatus $180,000 Closed
14. 2010-03-14
    historical
15. 2010-03-12
    listed $180,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,148 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,419 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,271/yr (+$106/mo · 59.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,016
• − Property taxes: −$2,148
• − Insurance: −$2,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,669
• − Management: −$2,669
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$15,069
• Taxable loss: −$22,093
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,302
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,022
• Household income: $149,087
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.78%
• Current HPI: 289.2128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+186.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $518,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $525,000 ARMLS
• 2018-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $303,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-13 Sold (MLS) $303,000 ARMLS
• 2018-06-12 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-06-04 Price Changed $310,000 ARMLS
• 2018-05-27 Listed $320,000 ARMLS
• 2010-05-14 Sold (MLS) $180,000 ARMLS
• 2010-03-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-03-12 Listed $180,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,148 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.