5 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,142 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 110 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,005/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$498
Tax + insurance
−$109
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$421
Net cashflow
$978/mo
Annual
$11,732/yr
Cap rate
18.66%
Cash-on-cash
44.15%
DSCR
2.96
1% rule
2.11%
Cash to close
$26,572
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $978 ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $1k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $784 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,005/mo this rent would consume 113% of the median local household income ($21k/yr) (locally 1108% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TZ93PS522EV2T0
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29