604 Upper Falls Blvd · Rochester, NY 14605

$94,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,142 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1900 4,357 sqft lot Est $99k · at est. ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 604 Upper Falls Blvd! This home offers two completely separate living spaces. Downstairs you'll find 5 bedrooms, a full bath with beautiful tile and stand up shower, an open kitchen with tile backsplash, stainless refrigerator and stackable washer and dryer combo. Take a walk upstairs and you'll find 3 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, a kitchen with island and ample storage space. Hardwood floors, a stylish barn door and some LVT flooring round out this home. New furnace (2020), new hot water tank (2024) vinyl windows. All appliances are included. Great opportunity for an owner occupant buyer or investor!

Key facts

• Ample storage space
• Island kitchen
• Tile backsplash

Tags

• SEPARATE LIVING SPACES
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS REFRIGERATOR
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• AMPLE STORAGE SPACE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $978 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,005/mo this rent would consume 113% of the median local household income ($21k/yr) (locally 1108% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $784 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $86,359 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.15%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $98,532
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Lincoln St	0.41mi	6/2.0 (+1)	1,952 (-9%)	2mo	$145,000	$74	59
144 Lewis St	0.60mi	5/2.0	1,990 (-7%)	2mo	$73,000	$37	58
187 Bernard St	0.41mi	5/2.0	1,885 (-12%)	13mo	$87,000	$46	50
946 Avenue D	0.72mi	5/2.0	1,980 (-8%)	6mo	$80,000	$40	49
132 Lyndhurst St	0.65mi	6/1.5 (+1)	1,988 (-7%)	6mo	$140,000	$70	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $63,235
• Equity at exit: $31,541

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $152,078
• Equity at exit: $41,260

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14605

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,005 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $830/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $978

Break-even live

Break-even rent $768

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 Lux St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1728	$2,150	$1.24	10d	1	1.10mi
117 Northaven Ter Rochester, NY	4.0	2.0	1460	$1,975	$1.35	10d	1	1.46mi
195 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1413	$1,265	$0.90	3d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2024-11-19
   status Pending
2. 2024-10-23
   price $94,900
3. 2024-08-01
   listed $109,900 Active
4. 2024-06-01
   historical
5. 2024-01-31
   price $130,000
6. 2024-01-18
   price $155,000
7. 2024-01-15
   listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $830 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,217 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$387/yr (+$32/mo · 46.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$830
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $10,830
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,599
• After-tax cash flow: $9,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 11,783
• Household income: $21,201
• Rent vs Own: 74.4% rent · 25.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1108.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 11% White 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 29% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Current HPI: 207.359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-32.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2024-11-19 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $94,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-08-01 Listed $109,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-06-01 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-01-31 Price Changed $130,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-01-18 Price Changed $155,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-01-15 Listed $139,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $830 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.