14848 Bigelow St

Pilot Point, TX 76258

$320,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,062 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,464/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$71
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-336/mo
• Annual: $-4,028/yr
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.50%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $89,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (23.0% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Pilot Point — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.