14848 Bigelow St · Pilot Point, TX 76258

$320,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,062 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 4,400 sqft lot $155/sqft · 29% below area Est $448k · 29% under $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms and an office are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level layout
• 4,400 sq ft lot

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing condition; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Listing offered with typical loan options including Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, and VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual association fee (paid annually) — full use of facilities; HOA managed by Essex

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces; Garage dimensions approximately 20' wide x 18' deep
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: MUD water; MUD sewer; Municipal Utility District service
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; Residential property; New construction (incomplete; year built 2026); Property not attached; Subdivision: Creekview
• Construction: Brick, frame, rock/stone, and siding exterior materials; Composition roof; Slab foundation; New construction (2026) — incomplete
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Natural stone/granite countertops; Built-in cabinets; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Plumbed for gas in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Additional bedrooms on main level (three bedrooms); Office on main level (can function as a bedroom/office)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Energy Star qualified equipment; Thermostat (energy-efficient)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Pantry; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Plumbed for utilities (water heater and related green-efficient features noted)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Pilot Point — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,431 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.50%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $448,365
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -28.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14550 Flossie St	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,140 (+4%)	2mo	$399,990	$187	65
5715 Smiley Rd	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-10%)	2mo	$850,000	$459	62
14549 Flossie St	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,866 (-10%)	1mo	$389,990	$209	60
5863 Anning Way	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,098 (+2%)	12mo	$445,000	$212	60
14426 Mcclint St	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,103 (+2%)	1mo	$398,000	$189	59
14551 Elion Ct	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,192 (+6%)	2mo	$399,940	$182	58
14498 Lovelace St	0.55mi	4/3.0	1,944 (-6%)	5mo	$359,990	$185	57
5917 Mayer Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,991 (-3%)	6mo	$334,990	$168	55
14441 Mietner St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,991 (-3%)	5mo	$349,990	$176	52
14498 Herschel St	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,240 (+9%)	3mo	$444,950	$199	49
14505 Lovelace St	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,333 (+13%)	1mo	$424,000	$182	48
14446 Mcclint St	0.69mi	4/3.0	1,944 (-6%)	14mo	$393,905	$203	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-73,150
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-90,896
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76258

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,889

Max offer price $271,432

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-114	-5% $-225	+0% $-336	+5% $-446	+10% $-557
Rent	-10% $-530	-5% $-433	+0% $-336	+5% $-238	+10% $-141
Rate	-1.0pp $-174	-0.5pp $-254	base $-336	+0.5pp $-419	+1.0pp $-503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5928 Mustang Creek Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,395	$1.26	14d	1	1.09mi
16309 Garden Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,450	$1.36	45d	1	1.14mi
6108 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,700	$1.27	14d	1	1.18mi
6108 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,650	$1.25	7d	1	1.18mi
6124 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2183	$2,595	$1.19	5d	1	1.19mi
5901 Maddie Ann Dr Celina, TX	4.0	4.0	2932	$3,895	$1.33	9d	1	1.19mi
14220 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,099	$1.27	5d	1	1.20mi
16629 Freshwater Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2211	$2,600	$1.18	26d	1	1.20mi
14221 Donahue St Pilot Point, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,499	$0.96	20d	1	1.20mi
6109 White Creek Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2168	$2,899	$1.34	4d	1	1.20mi
14216 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,135	$1.19	14d	1	1.20mi
14216 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,195	$1.22	45d	1	1.20mi
16625 Hidden Cove Dr Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	1962	$2,495	$1.27	26d	1	1.23mi
6246 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2182	$2,695	$1.24	0d	1	1.26mi
14184 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,400	$1.16	0d	1	1.28mi
6249 White Creek Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2168	$2,495	$1.15	12d	1	1.30mi
14122 Emeric St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	3.0	2247	$2,500	$1.11	26d	1	1.30mi
14115 Harden St Pilot Point, TX	5.0	3.5	2534	$2,790	$1.10	45d	1	1.31mi
6113 Tahoe Winds Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2174	$2,800	$1.29	26d	1	1.31mi
14153 Golden Bridge Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,895	$1.25	18d	1	1.31mi
14114 Donahue St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,200	$1.47	19d	1	1.34mi
14174 Inglebert St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,850	$1.27	45d	1	1.34mi
14112 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,895	$1.25	20d	1	1.38mi
14112 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,795	$1.18	9d	1	1.38mi
14149 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.5	2423	$2,395	$0.99	9d	1	1.38mi
14133 Calderwood St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,280	$1.30	45d	1	1.39mi
3304 Lake Palestine Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2179	$2,650	$1.22	14d	1	1.42mi
14121 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	45d	1	1.43mi
7108 Calshot Rd Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$1,995	$1.14	45d	1	1.46mi
5513 Deer Run Dr Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2009	$3,000	$1.49	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $320,000 397-char remark
2. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 397-char remark
3. 2026-04-27
   listed $339,999 Active 397-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
• − Management: −$2,366
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$9,646
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,315
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pilot Point

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,042

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.12%
• Current HPI: 303.4015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $339,999 NTREIS