3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,248 sqft ·
Built 1976
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 173 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,400/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$522
Tax + insurance
−$106
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$294
Net cashflow
$478/mo
Annual
$5,742/yr
Cap rate
12.06%
Cash-on-cash
20.61%
DSCR
1.92
1% rule
1.41%
Cash to close
$27,860
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $478 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $11k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#182 in NY, #2,828 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D+, commute F.
Ticonderoga Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #459 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Ticonderoga Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 360 students, 65% FRL); Ticonderoga Junior-Senior High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,032 of 1,100 statewide, top 95%, 359 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 4.0% in Ticonderoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.