2121 Ala Wai Blvd #3203

Urban Honolulu, HI 96815

$189,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 653 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Active · 189 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,183/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$351
• HOA: −$1,108
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $59/mo
• Annual: $709/yr
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.09%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.68%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($709/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; HOA is 35% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,638 units permitted in Honolulu County in 2024 (793 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Honolulu County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 1.5% in Urban Honolulu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,183/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 2422% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.