2121 Ala Wai Blvd #3203 · Urban Honolulu, HI 96815

$189,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 653 sqft · Condo public records · 186 Days on market

Built 1979 $291/sqft · 49% below area Est $371k · 49% under $1108/mo HOA · 35% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very well kept building with guest stalls, pool, sauna and security. Unit has nice views but is in need of a makeover.

Key facts

• Sauna
• Pool
• Security

Tags

• POOL
• SAUNA
• SECURITY
• NICE VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($709/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 1.5% in Urban Honolulu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,638 units permitted in Honolulu County in 2024 (793 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,183/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 2422% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Honolulu County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; HOA is 35% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.09%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $371,031
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -48.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.74% appreciation · 6.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $34,715
• Equity at exit: $82,651

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $139,173
• Equity at exit: $125,288

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96815

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,183 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$1,108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,108

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $113	+0% $59	+5% $5	+10% $-48
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-67	+0% $59	+5% $185	+10% $311
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $107	base $59	+0.5pp $10	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
445 Kaiolu St Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	490	$3,400	$6.94	17d	1	0.01mi
2121 Ala Wai Blvd Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0–3.0	1006	$4,400	$4.37	11d	1	0.04mi
2121 Ala Wai Blvd Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0–3.0	1006	$4,150	$4.12	4d	2	0.04mi
2121 Ala Wai Blvd Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0–3.0	1006	$4,200	$4.17	22d	2	0.04mi
430 Lewers St Unit 14D Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	732	$2,900	$3.96	24d	1	0.04mi
430 Lewers St Unit 25E Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	673	$2,700	$4.01	24d	1	0.04mi
2211 Ala Wai Blvd #1108 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	413	$2,600	$6.30	24d	1	0.08mi
2211 Ala Wai Blvd Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	437	$3,100	$7.09	24d	1	0.08mi
2140 Khi Ave Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	577	$4,500	$7.80	24d	1	0.08mi
2140 Khi Ave. unit Ph 2506 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	678	$3,200	$4.72	15d	1	0.08mi
2140 Khi AVE Unit 2306 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	553	$2,700	$4.88	17d	1	0.09mi
2140 Khi AVE Unit 2006 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	553	$3,400	$6.15	3d	1	0.09mi
440 Olohana St Unit 1327703P Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	355	$4,055	$11.42	12d	1	0.17mi
440 Olohana St Unit 1327711P Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	355	$3,741	$10.54	2d	1	0.17mi
445 Seaside Ave #2220 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	570	$2,625	$4.61	12d	1	0.21mi
2281 Ala Wai Blvd #902 Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0	609	$3,950	$6.49	14d	1	0.22mi
500 University Ave Honolulu, HI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	826	$3,200	$3.87	12d	3	0.27mi
2045 Kalakaua Ave Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	657	$4,200	$6.39	44d	1	0.28mi
555 University Ave Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	684	$2,850	$4.17	4d	2	0.30mi
2333 Kapiolani Blvd Unit 1008B Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0	600	$2,700	$4.50	24d	1	0.33mi
2345 Ala Wai Blvd #1514 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	555	$2,800	$5.05	24d	1	0.33mi
2499 Kapiolani Blvd Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	474	$2,675	$5.64	17d	2	0.38mi
2499 Kapiolani Blvd Honolulu, HI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	575	$3,300	$5.74	11d	2	0.38mi
2499 Kapiolani Blvd #3800 Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.5	676	$3,200	$4.73	4d	1	0.39mi
2380 Kuhio Ave Honolulu, HI	3.0	1.0–3.0	1212	$10,275	$8.47	2d	51	0.40mi
417 Kanekapolei St Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	566	$1,695	$2.99	44d	1	0.42mi
232 Kaiulani Ave Honolulu, HI	3.0	1.0	656	$4,225	$6.44	24d	8	0.44mi
2407 Tusitala St Unit 304 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	480	$1,500	$3.12	44d	1	0.47mi
2415 Ala Wai Blvd #1802 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	560	$3,000	$5.36	44d	1	0.48mi
2415 Ala Wai Blvd Honolulu, HI	1.0–2.0	1.0	665	$3,500	$5.26	17d	3	0.48mi
2410 Cleghorn St #2403 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	602	$2,500	$4.15	24d	1	0.49mi
2421 Tusitala St #902 Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0	590	$2,775	$4.70	12d	1	0.51mi
2423 Cleghorn St #204 Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0	600	$1,595	$2.66	24d	1	0.51mi
2421 Tusitala St Honolulu, HI	1.0–2.0	1.0	590	$2,849	$4.83	44d	2	0.51mi
425 Ena Rd Unit 204C Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	600	$2,700	$4.50	24d	1	0.53mi
2440 Khi Ave Unit 1608 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	488	$2,800	$5.74	44d	1	0.53mi
2440 Khi AVE Unit 1710 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	488	$2,600	$5.33	17d	1	0.54mi
2440 Khi AVE Unit 601 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	537	$2,200	$4.10	24d	1	0.54mi
2440 Khi AVE Unit 511 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	488	$2,400	$4.92	24d	1	0.54mi
2440 Khi AVE Unit 1412 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	536	$2,700	$5.04	45d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,108 · $13,296/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 171 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 170 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 169 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 168 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    status Active 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Very well kept building with guest stalls, pool, sauna and security. Unit has nice views but is in need of a makeover.

16. 2026-02-23
    price $192,500 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Very well kept building with guest stalls, pool, sauna and security. Unit has nice views but is in need of a makeover.

17. 2026-01-07
    price $195,000 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Very well kept building with guest stalls, pool, sauna and security. Unit has nice views but is in need of a makeover.

18. 2025-12-17
    status Active 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Very well kept building with guest stalls, pool, sauna and security. Unit has nice views but is in need of a makeover.

19. 2025-12-08
    historical Active Under Contract 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Very well kept building with guest stalls, pool, sauna and security. Unit has nice views but is in need of a makeover.

20. 2025-11-04
    listed $199,000 Active 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Very well kept building with guest stalls, pool, sauna and security. Unit has nice views but is in need of a makeover.

21. 2018-03-21
    historical
22. 2017-08-01
    status Active
23. 2017-08-01
    price $450,000
24. 2017-03-31
    status Pending
25. 2017-03-23
    listed $350,000 Active
26. 2007-08-21
    soldstatus $365,650
27. 1987-10-01
    soldstatus $157,000
28. 1987-09-09
    soldstatus $145,000
29. 1987-09-01
    soldstatus $72,500
30. 1979-10-01
    soldstatus $76,600
31. 1979-05-01
    soldstatus $91,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,800 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,800 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AO · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$2,417
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,055
• − Management: −$3,055
• − HOA: −$13,296
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$382
• After-tax cash flow: $1,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Urban Honolulu

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urban Honolulu, HI
• County: Honolulu County · 963,448 people
• City population: 309,956
• Metro: Urban Honolulu, HI
• Population (ZIP): 27,530
• Household income: $77,096
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2422.0

Population outlook (Honolulu County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,072,641 people
• By 2030: 1,110,460 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,181,593 · +10.2%
• By 2050: 1,257,584 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 1,501,120 · +39.9%
• By 2100: 1,764,430 · +64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 41% White 35% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Pacific Islander 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 15% Chinese 5% Korean 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Honolulu

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.6) · D 59.9% · R 38.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: 41.1pp · 2024: 21.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.6 2020: D+26.9 2016: D+29.9 2012: D+39.1 2008: D+41.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.74%
• Current HPI: 291.9404
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.00%
• Metro: Urban Honolulu, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+109.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Relisted — HiCentral MLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $192,500 HiCentral MLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $195,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2025-12-17 Relisted — HiCentral MLS
• 2025-12-08 Contingent — HiCentral MLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $199,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2018-03-21 Listing Removed — HiCentral MLS
• 2017-08-01 Relisted — HiCentral MLS
• 2017-08-01 Price Changed $450,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2017-03-31 Pending — HiCentral MLS
• 2017-03-23 Listed $350,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2007-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $365,650 Public Records
• 1987-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $157,000 Public Records
• 1987-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 1979-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $76,600 Public Records
• 1979-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $91,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,800 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.