2666 Us-20

Forestville, NY 14135

$39,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 891 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,014/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $464/mo
• Annual: $5,573/yr
• Cap rate: 20.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.89%
• DSCR: 3.22
• 1% rule: 2.54%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#982 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Silver Creek Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #435 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Silver Creek Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 440 students, 54% FRL); Silver Creek Middle School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #550 of 729 statewide, top 77%, 231 students, 56% FRL); Silver Creek High School (math 95% / reading 90%, grade A+, #153 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 308 students, 54% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.