2666 Us-20 · Forestville, NY 14135

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 891 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1910 0.62 ac lot ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

OPPORTUNITY to purchase a 3 bedroom/1 bath house in Sheridan at a very reasonable price! Large 0.62 acre lot, full basement, vinyl siding, some hardwood flooring and detached garage with workshop. Proof of funds and/or prequalification letter required with all offers. Open House: Sunday, November 23, 2025 11 am - 12 pm.

Key facts

• Full basement
• Large 0.62 acre lot
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• LARGE 0.62 ACRE LOT
• FULL BASEMENT
• VINYL SIDING
• DETACHED GARAGE WITH WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#982 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Silver Creek Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #435 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Silver Creek Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 440 students, 54% FRL); Silver Creek Middle School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #550 of 729 statewide, top 77%, 231 students, 56% FRL); Silver Creek High School (math 95% / reading 90%, grade A+, #153 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 308 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $37,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.89%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $34,441
• Equity at exit: $17,941

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.27×
• Total profit: $81,227
• Equity at exit: $27,649

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14135

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,014 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,333/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $427

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $487	-5% $476	+0% $464	+5% $453	+10% $442
Rent	-10% $384	-5% $424	+0% $464	+5% $505	+10% $545
Rate	-1.0pp $485	-0.5pp $475	base $464	+0.5pp $454	+1.0pp $444

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-01-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-18
   price $39,900
3. 2025-11-20
   price $59,900
4. 2025-10-20
   listed $69,900 Active
5. 2002-03-19
   soldstatus $52,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$1,333
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$974
• − Management: −$974
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $5,297
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,271
• After-tax cash flow: $4,302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Silver Creek Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,212
• Composite: 40.1/100
• National rank: #3804
• State rank: #435 of 590 in NY

Livability — Forestville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #982
• US rank: #19170

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 109

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 32% Slovak 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-24.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $39,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2002-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,333 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.