2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,001 sqft ·
Built 1948
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 150 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,376/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,023
Tax + insurance
−$229
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$289
Net cashflow
$-164/mo
Annual
$-1,974/yr
Cap rate
5.28%
Cash-on-cash
-3.62%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.71%
Cash to close
$54,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (14.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (29.5% below list).
It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $138k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#163 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, crime F.
Roanoke City Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #102 of 131 in VA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Wasena Elementary (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 233 students, 101% FRL); James Madison Middle (math 41% / reading 68%, grade B-, #194 of 342 statewide, top 60%, 580 students, 96% FRL); Patrick Henry High (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 2,005 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 67% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Roanoke City Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 113 units permitted in Roanoke city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Roanoke County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Roanoke — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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