2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
880 sqft ·
Built 1989
· Manufactured
· Active
· 126 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,028/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$471
Tax + insurance
−$150
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$426
Net cashflow
$981/mo
Annual
$11,769/yr
Cap rate
19.38%
Cash-on-cash
46.75%
DSCR
3.08
1% rule
2.26%
Cash to close
$25,172
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $981 ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 55/100 on livability (#871 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Santa Ana Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #329 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Greenville Fundamental Elementary (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #755 of 1,571 statewide, top 49%, 907 students, 66% FRL); Gonzalo Felicitas Mendez Fundamental Intermediate (1,293 students, 76% FRL); Valley High (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #804 of 1,170 statewide, top 69%, 2,197 students, 73% FRL).
Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 2.6% in Santa Ana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Painting
— Siding and roof show some discoloration
Minor: Landscaping
— Some plants appear overgrown
CashFlowRE · CFR-V033G61HX3PA6K
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29