592 Mariner Way

Woodbury, MN 55129

$239,900D+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,213 sqft · Built 1996 · Townhouse · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,276/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$299
• HOA: −$326
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-85/mo
• Annual: $-1,015/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (5.1% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $225k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#6 in MN, #153 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Woodbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.