592 Mariner Way · Woodbury, MN 55129

$239,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,213 sqft · Townhouse public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1996 10,715 sqft lot $198/sqft · 16% below area Est $300k · 20% under $326/mo HOA · 14% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready unit townhouse which features include two bedrooms with newer carpet, master bedroom 13x13 with walk-in closet, newer tile in kitchen and two baths, light and bright open living room with gas fireplace for those chilly winter nights, loft area is a nice spot for a computer room, T.V. room or just relaxing. Beautiful private patio area off kitchen for entertaining and BBQ's, 2nd level washer and dryer, two car insulated garage, ample parking next to townhouse for your guests, 1 block from walking trails and Markgraf Lake, 1 block from dozens of shops and restaurants. Just off Hwy 94 and minutes from downtown Saint Paul. Won't last, hurry!

Key facts

• $326 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1996

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.246 acres (dimensions ~82 x 130)
• Financial info: Conventional mortgage type
• HOA & community: HOA managed by First Service Residential; Monthly association fee of $326; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces (garage dimensions approximately 16'10" x 17'11")
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential attached property; Two levels
• Construction: Block construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Stone and vinyl exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms — both on the upper level (one listed as 'Bedroom', one as 'Bedroom 2')
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the upper level; One half bathroom on the main floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; Dining room; Living room; Office; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Woodbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#6 in MN, #153 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $224,954 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,650
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -19.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-44,296
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-45,654
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55129

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,276 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,384/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$326
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,383

Max offer price $224,954

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10225 City Walk Dr Woodbury, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1388	$2,045	$1.47	2d	24	0.29mi
9730 Hudson Blvd N Lake Elmo, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$2,413	$2.30	1d	30	0.73mi
9000 City Place Blvd Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.5	1194	$3,058	$2.56	1d	34	1.17mi
503 Karen Dr Woodbury, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,846	$1.84	1d	42	1.22mi
8630 Summer Wind Alcove Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–1.5	1060	$2,264	$2.14	1d	18	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $326 · $3,912/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-17
   historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 725-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $239,900 Active 725-char remark
3. 2026-05-11
   historical $239,900 725-char remark
4. 2020-12-16
   soldstatus $207,000
5. 2020-10-23
   soldstatus $207,000 Sold 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Move-in ready unit townhouse which features include two bedrooms with newer carpet, master bedroom 13x13 with walk-in closet, newer tile in kitchen and two baths, light and bright open living room with gas fireplace for those chilly winter nights, loft area is a nice spot for a computer room, T.V. room or just relaxing. Beautiful private patio area off kitchen for entertaining and BBQ's, 2nd level washer and dryer, two car insulated garage, ample parking next to townhouse for your guests, 1 block from walking trails and Markgraf Lake, 1 block from dozens of shops and restaurants. Just off Hwy 94 and minutes from downtown Saint Paul. Won't last, hurry!

6. 2020-09-22
   status Pending 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Move-in ready unit townhouse which features include two bedrooms with newer carpet, master bedroom 13x13 with walk-in closet, newer tile in kitchen and two baths, light and bright open living room with gas fireplace for those chilly winter nights, loft area is a nice spot for a computer room, T.V. room or just relaxing. Beautiful private patio area off kitchen for entertaining and BBQ's, 2nd level washer and dryer, two car insulated garage, ample parking next to townhouse for your guests, 1 block from walking trails and Markgraf Lake, 1 block from dozens of shops and restaurants. Just off Hwy 94 and minutes from downtown Saint Paul. Won't last, hurry!

7. 2020-09-11
   historical 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Move-in ready unit townhouse which features include two bedrooms with newer carpet, master bedroom 13x13 with walk-in closet, newer tile in kitchen and two baths, light and bright open living room with gas fireplace for those chilly winter nights, loft area is a nice spot for a computer room, T.V. room or just relaxing. Beautiful private patio area off kitchen for entertaining and BBQ's, 2nd level washer and dryer, two car insulated garage, ample parking next to townhouse for your guests, 1 block from walking trails and Markgraf Lake, 1 block from dozens of shops and restaurants. Just off Hwy 94 and minutes from downtown Saint Paul. Won't last, hurry!

8. 2020-09-08
   listed $206,900 Active 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Move-in ready unit townhouse which features include two bedrooms with newer carpet, master bedroom 13x13 with walk-in closet, newer tile in kitchen and two baths, light and bright open living room with gas fireplace for those chilly winter nights, loft area is a nice spot for a computer room, T.V. room or just relaxing. Beautiful private patio area off kitchen for entertaining and BBQ's, 2nd level washer and dryer, two car insulated garage, ample parking next to townhouse for your guests, 1 block from walking trails and Markgraf Lake, 1 block from dozens of shops and restaurants. Just off Hwy 94 and minutes from downtown Saint Paul. Won't last, hurry!

9. 2016-06-10
   soldstatus $156,500 Sold

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   This end-unit features a generous open floorplan, gleaming hardwood style floors, gas fireplace, breakfast bar, private patio and more! Upstairs laundry, two beds plus loft, master with walk-in closet. Close to guest parking. Within walking distance of restaurants and shopping. Don't miss out!

10. 2016-06-10
    soldstatus $156,500

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    This end-unit features a generous open floorplan, gleaming hardwood style floors, gas fireplace, breakfast bar, private patio and more! Upstairs laundry, two beds plus loft, master with walk-in closet. Close to guest parking. Within walking distance of restaurants and shopping. Don't miss out!

11. 2016-04-22
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    This end-unit features a generous open floorplan, gleaming hardwood style floors, gas fireplace, breakfast bar, private patio and more! Upstairs laundry, two beds plus loft, master with walk-in closet. Close to guest parking. Within walking distance of restaurants and shopping. Don't miss out!

12. 2016-04-12
    historical

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    This end-unit features a generous open floorplan, gleaming hardwood style floors, gas fireplace, breakfast bar, private patio and more! Upstairs laundry, two beds plus loft, master with walk-in closet. Close to guest parking. Within walking distance of restaurants and shopping. Don't miss out!

13. 2016-03-30
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    This end-unit features a generous open floorplan, gleaming hardwood style floors, gas fireplace, breakfast bar, private patio and more! Upstairs laundry, two beds plus loft, master with walk-in closet. Close to guest parking. Within walking distance of restaurants and shopping. Don't miss out!

14. 2016-03-29
    listed $159,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    This end-unit features a generous open floorplan, gleaming hardwood style floors, gas fireplace, breakfast bar, private patio and more! Upstairs laundry, two beds plus loft, master with walk-in closet. Close to guest parking. Within walking distance of restaurants and shopping. Don't miss out!

15. 2016-03-29
    historical

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    This end-unit features a generous open floorplan, gleaming hardwood style floors, gas fireplace, breakfast bar, private patio and more! Upstairs laundry, two beds plus loft, master with walk-in closet. Close to guest parking. Within walking distance of restaurants and shopping. Don't miss out!

16. 2004-09-03
    soldstatus $174,000
17. 2004-08-27
    soldstatus $174,000
18. 2004-08-02
    historical
19. 2004-06-29
    listed $169,900
20. 2001-04-23
    soldstatus $134,900
21. 1996-09-27
    soldstatus $95,665

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,384 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,535 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$151/yr (+$13/mo · 6.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,384
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,185
• − Management: −$2,185
• − HOA: −$3,912
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$4,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,193
• After-tax cash flow: $178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stillwater Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2738190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $84,438
• Composite: 49.8/100
• National rank: #1954
• State rank: #54 of 301 in MN

Livability — Woodbury

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #153

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodbury, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 78,305
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 34,120
• Household income: $143,795
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 639.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Asian 17% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.89%
• Current HPI: 216.0248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.91%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+166.6% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Sold (MLS) $255,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-24 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $239,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Coming Soon $239,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $207,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-23 Sold (MLS) $207,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-08 Listed $206,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $156,500 Public Records
• 2016-06-10 Sold (MLS) $156,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-12 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-30 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-29 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $174,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-27 Sold (MLS) $174,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-29 Listed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $134,900 Public Records
• 1996-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $95,665 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,384 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.