178 Albion St

San Francisco, CA 94110

$995,000F

12 bd · 6.0 ba · 6,378 sqft · Built 1909 · Townhouse · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,637/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax + insurance: −$3,815
• HOA: −$365
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,394
• Net cashflow: $-4,154/mo
• Annual: $-49,852/yr
• Cap rate: 1.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.89%
• DSCR: 0.20
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $278,600

Investor read

• This is a 12-bed/6.0-bath townhouse listed at $995k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-50k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $706k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $664k (33.3% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($965k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $664k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $775k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 1.3% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $6,637/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($158k/yr) (locally 2732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?