7908 Mansfield Hollow Rd

Delray Beach, FL 33446

$435,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,329/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax + insurance: −$385
• HOA: −$320
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$699
• Net cashflow: $-356/mo
• Annual: $-4,276/yr
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.51%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $121,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $435k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $372k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (23.5% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($428k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $333k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#202 in FL, #3,160 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A-; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hagen Road Elementary School (math 55% / reading 63%, grade B-, #722 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 773 students, 46% FRL); Carver Middle School (math 22% / reading 34%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 732 students, 73% FRL); Spanish River Community High School (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #63 of 667 statewide, top 10%, 2,578 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 584 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $182k; list at $435k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.3% in Delray Beach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $3,329/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 494% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.